This is not something I usually write about, but I’ve been reading a particular set of books that had me thinking about what may happen in the future. Being able to project what may happen in 5 to 10 years can be useful in planning ahead for one’s life. Whether you care about politics or not, it’s worth looking into models that can help make that process more comprehensible and perhaps even more precise. After all, it’s still worth a few brain cells to have some awareness of current events — thinking you’re not affected by them is foolish at best.
The world has been getting very chaotic lately, as if it hadn’t been messy enough already. Ever since the start of the 2020s, things are no longer just interesting, but also concerning. When things happen that affect even the most privileged and socially detached, then you know noise will get even louder as even the most cynical among us start chiming in. As of this writing, someone got shot in the US, the political landscape in the Philippines got reshuffled by force, and the rest of the world continues to get closer to a catastrophic scenario.
However, if you think this blog post is being alarmist, then you haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening around you. So-called fantastical scenarios are no longer merely theoretical, therefore it’s time to stop keeping our heads under the sand and find ways to prepare for whatever may come, whether the worst will come to pass or the chaos dissipates and we just get a whole nothingburger. Let’s take a look at something we can use to plan ahead.
NOTE: Due to my current status, I can’t name any names in Philippine politics. I can only paint this picture with broad brushstrokes. Reader discretion is advised.
The Current Crisis Era
According to the Strauss-Howe generational theory, which is detailed in their 1997 book The Fourth Turning, Neil Howe and William Strauss detailed how our history tends to go through cycles (or saecula), each following four different eras (or turnings), with each era dominated by the archetypes of each generation who are born and come of age during them.
The current global saeculum is as follows:
- High: 1946 to 1963 — Baby Boomers (Prophets)
- Awakening: 1963 to 1984 — Gen X (Nomads)
- Unraveling: 1984 to 2008 — Millennials (Heroes)
- Crisis: 2008 to Early 2030s? — Gen Z (Artists)
- New High: Mid 2030s? to Mid 2050s? — Gen Alpha (Prophets)
You may find yourself raising your eyebrows at this. That’s just the trouble of anything that tries to compartmentalize humanity and its history in neat little boxes. However, it can still be a useful tool for projecting what may happen ahead of time, even though it’s mostly based on American history and current events. That’s a caveat worth considering when looking at the probable future of somewhere else like the Philippines, which has its own dynamics.
From this predictive model, we can surmise that we’re currently in a Crisis, which likely started back around 2007-2008 with the Global Financial Crisis. It will then be followed by a new High around the early 2030s, which brings me to the realization of a likely eventuality.
The Philippine Saeculum
Meanwhile, here’s what I came up with for the current Philippine saeculum:
- Crisis: 1969 to 1985 — Martial Law
- Authoritarian centralization, suppression of dissent, insurgencies, ended with massive institutional rupture.
- High: 1986 to 2001 — Post-Dictatorial Era
- New constitution, ‘restoration of democracy’, rebuilding of institutions, return of press freedom, rise of civil society. 1997 Asian Financial Crisis dents optimism.
- Awakening: 2001 to 2016 — Cultural and Political Erosion
- Growing distrust in institutions, fatigue in dissent, spiritual and moral disillusionment, millennials mature into political and cultural consciousness.
- Unraveling: 2016 to 2022 — Populist Era
- Institutions hollow out, weakened rule of law, populism replace democratic optimism, authoritarian nostalgia, extrajudicial killings, erosion of checks and balances, deep polarization.
- Crisis: 2022 to Early or Mid 2030s? — Dynastic Restoration
- Deep political polarization, erosion of truth, geopolitical instability, worsening inequality, intensifying climate disasters, possible collapse of remittance economy due to shifts in global labor demand and anti-immigration policies.
- New High: Early or Mid 2030s? to ??? — New Authoritarian Order / Democratic Rebirth
- Either a new, more consolidated authoritarian regime or a less chaotic democracy.
This looks messy because the Philippines is messy. Much of our sociopolitical order is dictated by whoever comes to power in Malacañang, thus the short Unraveling period of six years before our current Crisis. Those six years under that particular president were so chaotic — including the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns of 2020-2021 — that it was certainly its own unraveling. Its effects are still being felt now in 2025 — nine years after its start.
Or perhaps you can argue that it’s a part of the previous Awakening period, so we’re actually just in an Unraveling and an upcoming Crisis has yet to come.
Only time will tell, but things are happening fast as I write this.
The Great (or Eventual) Dying
By the early 2030s, the current gerontocracy will hit its limit, which is the end of the natural lifespan of boomers who are currently running our world. Some of these leaders are merely serving out their terms in office, while others are strongmen who have more or less become heads of state for life. The most prominent ones are starting to show signs of ill health at 70 to 80 years of age, which means they won’t have much longer to stick around.
For those nations with longtime leaders who are likely approaching their expiry date, their abrupt absence may leave a power vacuum if they’re unable to appoint rightful successors, especially if those nations happen to not have a robust enough democratic process to elect new leaders.
At the same time, millennial politicians will reach their 40s to early 50s, and they’ll be in position to eventually take over those positions. It will take some time before they’re able to mold the power structure and culture to their image, but we’ll see quickly enough if they’ll be able to do so towards positive or negative change, or even none at all.
There could be hope in the best among us becoming the hero generation, although not everyone will be heroes — some will likely be unwilling or unrepentant villains.
We have come to this — no grand revolution, no truly global outpouring of frustrations, no immediate replacement of the current order. There are pockets of resistance, but no great undoing of the powers that be. At best, merely a great undying; at worst, a slow and painful wait for the status quo to possibly be replaced by younger generations who may or may not have the common people’s interests at heart.
NOTE: A few days after I wrote that last paragraph, revolutions have been ramping up throughout the world. Therefore, that’s already the first thing I got wrong in this post, and that was before I published.
The Upcoming Political Replacements in the Philippines
Unfortunately, things are different here in this country. With the dominance of political dynasties, those old farts already have heirs looking to take their place and keep their family names alive in the upper echelons of political power. I’m not saying there’s no such thing happening outside of the Philippines and Southeast Asia, but that’s the prevailing meta over here.
From here, we have two paths — our political dynasties stay entrenched or there will be a dynastic crackup.
Entrenched Political Dynasties (Most Likely)
Scions of current leaders will take their place. Think of every powerful political family throughout the Philippines and you’ll see that they’ve already groomed their heirs for succession. There will be no major power vacuum, which has a silver lining of there being no potential civil war or major domestic conflict if things go smoothly.
However, things will keep getting rougher for the masses as the status quo is maintained.
We will have more modernized trapos (traditional politicians) — young, highly-educated elite who are naturally fluent in using social media for their public relations. They will work with the same branding, but they will be more polished and sophisticated by making use of AI-driven propaganda and influencer-style politics. It won’t just be campaign posters, but also TikTok and Facebook on overdrive.
There won’t just be troll farms to make noise, but also other methods of psychological operations.
Meanwhile, business dynasties will remain married to politics, running oligarchy-friendly policies that will be powered by technology and social media savvy. They will further capture the Philippine economy and broaden the wealth gap, furthering the cost of living crisis.
Voters will still only choose between these political dynasties, not outside them. It will still be picking between different flavors of trapos to lead us. We will enter a new era of a ‘controlled High’ after this era of Crisis. The system will stabilize and some measure of order will be restored, but the inequalities and dysfunction in our society will remain.
Of course, other things can happen as we can still be affected by whatever happens overseas, especially with China and the US.
It’s going to be the same game, same surnames, but with younger players for a ‘new’ Philippines that will still feel very old.
Dynastic Crackup (Possible if Crisis Intensifies)
We’ve been seeing upheavals lately throughout Southeast Asia, namely the ongoing protests in Indonesia that are still ongoing as of this writing, as well as whatever damned fool thing in the Thai-Cambodian border is going on for a disputed area with an ancient Buddhist temple.
They may inspire something drastic to happen in this country. The Philippines is no stranger to black swan events in times of crisis, like those during 1898, 1946, and 1986. It seems to happen every 40 to 50 years, so we may be close to another one soon. I was born in 1986, so I’m turning 40 next year. That may be one hell of a birthday for me, so stay tuned for updates.
The current Crisis may hit a flashpoint, caused by a big climate disaster (we’ve already been affected by increased flooding), economic collapse due to credit default and/or decline in remittances, or a political scandal so great that it completely shatters trust in the government (which is already pretty low).
There could also be an increase in mass discontent. OFWs, Gen Z, and Millennials (who will hit their mid 30s to early 40s) could rally behind outsiders, either another populist, a reformist, a complete outsider with significant media influence, or even a military figurehead. If a charismatic wild card does show up, it will be much like what happened in 1986 and 2016, channeling either nationalist or reformist energy.
While the political dynasties will remain in power, their successors may catalyze an unraveling of the current order as they ramp up their rivalries amongst each other. Instead of stabilizing power, their constant infighting may end up diminishing them and their dominance will start showing cracks or even massive fissures.
This High will be more of a genuine reconstruction with the building of new institutions and establishment of a stronger sense of national purpose. If the status quo does get completely tipped over, we may even see a break from the dynastic stranglehold, but that will only happen after a period of absolute chaos.
Potential Wild Cards
Just remember that everything in politics is a performance. A fantasy has to be sold for a certain reality to manifest. I previously wrote about the kayfabe in politics and media, wherein I touched upon how that ethereal veil between fiction and real life dictates how people’s minds are manipulated for their own ends. It’s not just about making things happen, but selling a dream of a better tomorrow — marketing a brighter future, whether it will happen or not.
That may seem cynical, but it’s actually insanity, when you really think about it. The same thing is done over and over again, and everyone still expects a different result.
If ever the second, less probable scenario of dynastic crackup actually takes place, then we’ll have a pick of who may be the next to carry us over to the next era. Whoever that may be, they may fall under one of the following categories.
The Reformist Outsider
There are quite a few younger politicians who are making waves for not being the typical trapos that the country has been used to. However, they need not be already in the game — they could be an outsider, a breath of fresh air. They could be backed by either the people, the Church, or a coalition of NGOs and other groups. They could be a lawyer, a judge, or an activist who gains traction after a disaster or scandal.
The mission is reform and the plan is to actually do it. There has been an obsession with either copious preparation and hasty action, without a balance of both. This reformer has to be privy to the importance of both, then actually execute — not just say they can. We shouldn’t even get a warning, just a show of what’s being done when it’s already being done.
The Populist Firebrand
It could be a repeat of the 2016 presidential election, where a populist cursed and condemned his way to the top. The difference here is it’s going to be a younger and less insecure pretender. I’m sorry, but if you happen to be a follower of that previous firebrand, you should read up on his background as a rich kid pretending to be a tough guy, a lot like how his children are these days.
The problem with firebrands is they do a whole lot of talking, and we’ve already heard enough from just about everyone for the past four decades. It’d be nice to find one who talks with both tact and panache without having to stoop down. We had someone like that in the last election, but they had to choose the redemption arc instead of a future in a different color.
The Military Strongman
This is more common in the Southeast Asian mainland, where military juntas prevail. This has the least potential to work in this country as the trauma of martial law still persists, although sentiment towards authoritarian rule has been shifting. Perhaps they have to be reminded of how it feels to get hit with the butt of a rifle in the middle of the night simply because they dared to voice their opinion about their own rights and property.
However, if a world war is indeed upon us during this Crisis era, then perhaps we’re going to need a wartime leader for what’s to come.
The Technocratic Entrepreneur
It’s likely that an heir of a business dynasty will position themselves as a modern technocrat, promising efficient governance with artificial intelligence while balancing it with eco-friendliness to skirt around the current flood problem. If we ever have a tech billionaire running for office, they wouldn’t just be using social media — they’d be running it.
Contrary to popular belief, the Philippines does have some technological chops. Our handle on information technology rivals that of India, and we also have a semiconductor industry — although it’s bottlenecked by our below-average energy infrastructure. Therefore, it’s not that far-fetched to see a magnate rise with a tech-focused agenda, promising that we will become ‘Singapore-lite’. Oh wait, somebody had already been doing that.
The Influencer-Politician
We’ve begun to see online content creators endorsing politicians, so it may not be that farfetched to see one run for office and leverage their millions of Pinoy subscribers, both domestic and overseas. The one thing influencers do better than most politicians is their commodified authenticity, having their audience bear witness to their daily lives. With more chances to show their unmasked personas, they may seem more ‘honest’.
The lingering fatigue Filipinos have for traditional politicians and their empty promises can result in them getting behind an influencer who seems more compassionate to their plight. They may have come from next to nothing, understand the struggles that everyone else has to live with, and don’t flaunt their fortunes like the children of embezzlers. In this Instagram-coded world, where everything has to look perfect, the one who goes the other way will stand out.
Conclusion
I don’t wish to write more about politics on this blog not because I don’t care, but due to my current status. My understanding of Philippine politics is not that strong, and it’s not due to a lack of trying. Meanwhile, I wish to delve more into history, economics, and philosophy to bolster my understanding of whatever is happening around me, especially as I’m about to enter a new chapter in my life over the next year or so.
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Have something to say? Do you agree or am I off-base? Did I miss a crucial detail or get something completely wrong? Please leave whatever reactions, questions, or suggestions you may have in the comment section below.
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